Archive
New General Election prediction
Electoral Calculus predicts the next British General Election result using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography.
If there were a General Election tomorrow, what would happen?
Current Prediction: Conservative short 36 of majority
|
Prediction based on opinion polls from 16 Apr 10 to 24 Apr 10, sampling 19,339 people.
New General Election prediction
Electoral Calculus predicts the next British General Election result using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography.
If there were a General Election tomorrow, what would happen?
Current Prediction: Conservative short 30 of majority
|
Prediction based on opinion polls from 19 Mar 10 to 20 Apr 10, sampling 20,100 people.
Latest poll – Cornwall’s Tories are stuffed
The Baulking House has just carried out its first poll of voting intentions in Cornwall in the general election and its findings couldn’t be clearer – Cornwall’s Tories are stuffed.
I have just taken a bus ride between St Ives and Penzance and counted the number of election posters for the St Ives Constituency displayed along the route: a forest of posters exhorting us to back Lib Dem candidate Andrew George (‘Standing up for Cornwall’) and just five for Derek Thomas (‘Change’) the Tory candidate. AND while Mr George’s posters sprouted from the gardens of private houses, three of Mr Thomas’ posters were on farmland – two of which were on the same farmer’s fields. Now that’s not a very helpful message to voters from a party claiming to be of ‘the people’.
It’s true Mr Thomas’ posters were larger than those of Mr George’s, but I don’t think that skews my findings in any way. (It’s a mystery to me why England’s farmers think that the Tory party is for them. In the past French farmers more sensibly always voted communist). Perhaps our lot believe Cameron’s promise to rough-up Tesco over what the supermarket pays Farmer Giles for his milk, but I predict that, if Cameron wins, they’ll be disappointment down on the farm as thick as cow shit. Just in case you are in anyway sympathetic to farmers who moan about Big Bad Tesco, I suggest you factor into your considerations the massive subsidies we throw at our farmers – some of whom seem to think they are in the business of growing money rather than oats.
The only consolation I can offer Mr Thomas is that he looks rather charming and civilised in his poster photograph (I’m assuming there’s been no airbrushing). But, as I have observed before, what on earth is he doing standing for the Nasties? Is Christianity to blame?
I urge everyone who wants to make a real contribution to the run-up to the general election in Cornwall to replicate my evidenced-based polling technique and send in the results to the blog via Leave a comment. Who needs Gallup?
Latest General Election prediction for St Ives
Below is the latest prediction for St Ives. Predictions for all other constituencies can be found at Electoral Calculus. See also UK Polling Report.
ST IVES
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP Andrew George (LIB)
| Electorate | 64,159 | Turnout | 67.48% | Top | ||||
| 2005 Votes | 2005 Share | Predicted Votes | Chance of winning | |||||
| LIB | 21,701 | 50.13% | 48.77% |
|
||||
| CON | 12,500 | 28.87% | 32.09% |
|
||||
| LAB | 5,409 | 12.49% | 7.17% |
|
||||
| OTH | 3,682 | 8.51% | 11.98% |
|
||||
| LIB Majority | 9,201 | 21.25% | Pred Maj | 16.67% | ||||
| Results for 2005 implied from new boundary calculations | ||||||||
 This seat is not safe and voters have a real say on their MP |
||||||||
The Baulking House 